Looking at the realtime markets available at Tradesports: I see some interesting opportunities The market is predicting a 50.5% chance that the Colts beat the Bears buy at least 6.5 ponts. Colts to beat the Bears outright, is trading at 68.5%

The starting lines according to USAToday’s Odds section shows The line started at 7 points and is now trading at some places near 6 points. There definately is some price momentum to take the line down. My guess is that there is some big $ selling prices down

The bet I’d take is sell Colts at 6.5points here. Good Luck!

One thing I noticed is the use of the word “baby” after some sports related statement. For example: “The Bears are going to the superbowl baby!” Although the 1980’s cocaine culture has ended, you always seem to see some words and phrases linger on in the hearts and minds of sports fans. I think this phenomenon is because you dont really see too many people using informal language on television, and since a lot of these guys are much older, they use words they think are “cool.” It will be a matter of time before some aging athlete is describing Lebron James’ moves as “siiick.”

It’s super bowl sunday - and this is gonna be a good one.

on one hand, you have the bears - third lowest points allowed per game, fifth lowest yards allowed per game and the second most interceptions.  and on the other, you have the colts, with the third most points scored per game, third most yards per game, and tied for the most passing TDs.

but there are some interesting angles as well.  the bears, known for their defense, actually scored more points per game than the colts.  the colts, whose defense is often overlooked, actually ranked second in pass yards allowed (oakland was first - you believe that?!).

so, i don’t think this will be a pure defense vs. offense battle.  this game looks like it’s going to be much more exciting.

what can we expect from the colts?  the st louis rams - the so called greatest show on turf - scored only 17 and 23 points in their most recent super bowl appearances.  meanwhile, teams well known for their defense, like the buccaneers and ravens, scored 48 and 34 points respectively in their last appearances.  sure, kurt warner is no peyton manning, but i think we’re going to see the bears put up a whole bunch of points, while peyton struggles. 

now, i’m no football analyst, but i think the bears’ defense will be able to slow the passing game, while still keeping the colt’s mediocre running game covered.  at the same time, the bears will come at the colts with benson and jones, and although the colts have improved immensely with their running defense in the playoffs, they are not versatile enough to adapt to both backs while keeping grossman in check.

it is interesting that the colts did such a great job against the patriots and their two-back tandem of dillion and maroney.  but those two backs only had a combined 15 carries, and new england never seemed to make an effort on the ground.

the bears on the other hand, will grind it out on the ground to take pressure off grossman.  just like they did with the saints, i think the bears will experiment with benson and jones, and stay with the back that has the most success.  this should really drive the colts crazy, and open up grossman for some easy passes - and maybe a bomb or two to berrian.

there are a few other subplots as well.  will peyton finally get is ring?  i don’t think so - good QB, great receivers, few interceptions, but they crumble in big games and look weak against good defenses.  the colts didn’t score a TD against the ravens - lucky for them the ravens had no offense - but that is not the case with the bears.  I also think it’s telling that, in the regular season, the colts were held to 14 and 17 points against the titans, 17  points against the jags, 17 points against the bills, and 14 points against the cowboys - all teams with better than average defenses.  The point is, i don’t think peyton has the answer against teams that can d up against him.

another angle, this is the first super bowl with a black head coach, and ironically both coaches ended up being black.  i think it’s an archaic stat to keep - i mean, the NFL is about as integrated as you can get.  i think the next stat to break is when will we see a white leading rusher or receiver.  can that be the next racial barrier please?  plus, black coaches lovie smith and tony dungy have to be there to make up for the unbelievable whiteness of peyton.

grossman too, has taken a lot of flak for being unreliable and careless with the ball.  but the kid has only 1 interception and 1 fumble in his two playoff games so far - so he’s clearly not panicking.  his completion percentage is down to 50%, compared to 55% for the regular season - but i think this is a good sign.  seems to me like this shows he’s more willing to throw the ball away rather than to risk an interception - an encouraging sign of maturity.

as for points, i really think these predictions are so far out there.  you really can’t come close to developing an effective methodology for points scored.  but my guess is that the colts will get 2 tds, and 2 field goals, for a total of 20 points, while the bears will get 4 tds (they will need help from their d and special teams here too) and 2 fgs for a total of 34 points.

so….bears 34, colts 20 - japadamus calls it.

Apple Recon is reporting that Apple Inc. is planning a special event for February 20th.  I’m not sure if the rumor is at all true but I guess the timing coincides with a similar event they did last year after Macworld.

I can’t wait to see what Apple has up its sleeve, the people at the company seem to be extraordinarily blessed at creating amazing products.